IS OUR PUBLIC DEBT TOO HIGH OR TOO LOW?

with thanks to Azam 64A

List of countries by public debt to GDP

North Korea 0.4%

Hong Kong 10.1%

Uganda 25.0%

Philippines 49.4%

Malaysia 53.5% (2011)

Brazil 54.4%

Poland 56.3%

Netherlands 65.9%

Germany 82.0%

US 104.1%

Singapore 118.2%

Greece 165.3%

Japan 208.2%

Is ours too high or too low?

Good question to ask. 

Public Debt to GDP ratio, N Korea 0.4%, Malaysia 53.5%, so is N Korea managing its economy better than Malaysia?

No. The ratio only gives the amount of debt compared to the income of a nation. Countries need to borrow to stimulate growth as compared to only the income generated by the country. If the debt is put to good purposes like development of health, education,agriculture, other industries - ok, especially if done well, properly planned and managed, no wastage. If the debt is wasted like leakages through corruption, spending on unproductive projects like the world's tallest and longest building, buying weapons at high prices that don't function as expected - then not ok.

Is 53.5% a safe ratio for Malaysia?

To know the this, the rate of interest for the debt, the annual growth of GDP comes into the picture. If the

interest is low, and the rate of growth high, a nation can take more debt. That is why S'pore can easily absorb

a ratio of 118.2%. Malaysia can manage 53.5% but almost reaching the safe limit. Lebih pada ni akan lemas.

Using the debt interest rate and rate of growth of GDP the article came out with a formula to determine
if a nation's public debt is sustainable. At the moment Malaysia's debt is just sustainable. If the debt
is increase further Malaysia's income will not keep pace with the debt payment. The amount of debt
will increase even without taking any more loan.

The interest rate charge on a nation when it borrows depend on its rating - set by international agencies
like Std.&Poor, Fitch. They base this on the economic performance, stability, transparency of a nation.
The highest rating is AAA , S'pore is rated this, Malaysia is A-. The fear for Malaysia is not the A- rating
as such but the fast increase of national debts in the last few years. Can Malaysia improve its rating to A
in the near future? This is still several steps behind S'pore's AAA, which can borrow more cheaply and manage
the borrowings well, no wastage. The capital will further increase the rate of growth of GDP, which will allow 
it to borrow more. It is in a virtuous cycle. Malaysia increase its borrowing at a fast rate but the efficiency
in the country is sliding, it wastes its borrowings, joli sana joli sini. Sekarang nak bagi 1.5 month bonus to
every civil sector employee. What is the % of them that can be classify as good so as to justify this bonus?
Nak bagi RM500 pulak, yg pertama dah jadi tahit. So Malaysia is entering into a vicious cycle. 
It looks from the above that I am only blaming the govt, what about individuals like you and me? Yes, we are 
also to be blame if we do not perform to std. If we are efficient we can to an extent overcome the failings of
our great leaders. Also don't forget, vote smart!
azam 64A

POLITICANS ARE YOUR SERVANT: TENGKU RAZALEIGH

steadyaku47 comment: Ku Li...cakap bukan serupa bikin lah!

Subject:  Pre-National Day - An excellent speech by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in UK.

Thank you for inviting me to speak with you. I am truly honoured. I have

played some small role in the life of this nation, but having been on the

wrong side of one or two political fights with the powers that be, I am not

as close to the young people of this country as I would hope to be.

History, and the 8 o'clock news, are written by the victors. In recent years

the government's monopoly of the media has been destroyed by the technology revolution.

You could say I was also a member of the UKEC. Well I was, except that

belonged to the predecessor of the UKEC by more than fifty years, The

Malayan Students Union of the UK and Eire. I led this organisation in

1958/59. I was then a student of Queen's University at Belfast, in a rather

cooler climate than Kota Bharu's.

Your invitation to participate in the MSLS was prefaced by an essay which

calls for an intellectually informed activism. I congratulate you on this.

The Youth of today, you note, "will chart the future of Malaysia." You say

you "no longer want to be ignored and leave the future of our Malaysia at

the hands of the current generation." You "want to grab the bull by the

horns... and have a say in where we go as a society and as a nation."I feel

the same, actually. A lot of Malaysians feel the same. They are tired of

being ignored and talked down to by swaggering mediocrities.

You are right. The present generation in power has let Malaysia down.

But also you cite two things as testimony of the importance of youth and of student activism to this country, the election results of 2008 and "the

Prime Minister's acknowledgement of the role of youth in the development of the country."

So perhaps you are a little way yet from thinking for yourselves. The first

step in "grabbing the bull by the horns" is not to required the endorsement of the Prime Minister, or any Minister, for your activism.

Politicians are not your parents. They are your servants. You don't need a

government slogan coined by a foreign PR agency to wrap your project in. You just go ahead and do it.

When I was a student our newly formed country was already a leader in the postcolonial world. We were sought out as a leader in the Afro-Asian

Conference which inaugurated the Non-Aligned Movement and the G-77. The Afro-Asian movement was led by such luminaries as Zhou En-lai, Nehru, Kwame Nkrumah, Soekarno.  Malaysians were seen as moderate leaders capable of mediating between these more radical leaders and the West.  We were known for our moderation, good sense and reliability.

We were a leader in the Islamic world as ourselves and as we were, without our leaders having to put up false displays of piety. His memory has been scrubbed out quite systematically from our national consciousness, so you might not know this or much else about him,but it was Tengku Abdul Rahman who established our leadership in the Islamic world by coming up with the idea of the OIC and making it happen.

Under his leadership Malaysia led the way in taking up the anti-apartheid

cause in the Commonwealth and in the United Nations, resulting in South

Africa's expulsion from these bodies.

Here was a man at ease with himself, made it a policy goal that Malaysia be "a happy country". He loved sport and encouraged sporting achievement among Malaysians. He was owner of many a fine race horse.

He called a press conference and had a beer with his stewards when his horse won at the Melbourne Cup. He had nothing to hide because his great integrity in service was clear to all. Now we have religious and moral hypocrites who cheat, lie and steal in office but never have a drink, who propagate an ideologically shackled education system for all Malaysians while they send their own kids to elite academies in the West.

Speaking of football. You're too young to have experienced the Merdeka Cup, which Tunku started. We had a respectable side in the sixties and seventies. Teams from across Asia would come to play in Kuala Lumpur.

Teams such as South Korea and Japan, whom we defeated routinely. We were one of the better sides in Asia. We won the Bronze medal at the Asian games in 1974 and qualified for the Moscow Olympics in 1980.

Today our FIFA ranking is 157 out of 203 countries. That puts us in the

lowest quartile, below Maldives (149), the smallest country in Asia, with

just 400,000 people living about 1.5 metres above sea level who have to

worry that their country may soon be swallowed up by climate change. Here in ASEAN we are behind Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, whom we used to dominate, and our one spot above basketball-playing Philippines.

The captain of our illustrious 1970's side was Soh Chin Aun. Arumugam, Isa Bakar, Santokh Singh, James Wong and Mokhtar Dahari were heroes whose names rolled off the tongues of our schoolchildren as they copied them on the school field.  It wasn't about being the best in the world, but about being passionate and united and devoted to the game.

It was the same in Badminton, except at one time we were the best in the

world. I remember Wong Peng Soon, the first Asian to win the All-England

Championship, and then just dominated it throughout the 1950. Back home every kid who played badminton in every little kampong wanted to call himself Wong Peng Soon. There was no tinge of anybody identifying themselves exclusively as Chinese, Malays, Indian.  Peng Soon was a Malaysian hero. Just like each of our football heroes. Now we do not have an iota of that feeling. Where has it all gone?

I don't think it's mere nostalgia that that makes us think there was a time

when the sun shone more brightly upon Malaysia.  I bring up sport because it has been a mirror of our more general performance as nation. When we were at ease with who we were and didn't need slogans to do our best together, we did well. When race and money entered our game, we declined. The same applies to our political and economic life

Soon after independence we were already a highly successful developing

country. We had begun the infrastructure building and diversification of our economy that would be the foundation for further growth. We carried out an import-substitution programme that stimulated local productive capacity.  From there we started an infrastructure buildup which enabled a diversification of the economy leading to rapid industrialisation. We

carried out effective programmes to raise rural income and help with

landless with programmes such as FELDA. Our achievements in achieving growth with equity were recognised around the world. We were ahead of our peer group in economic development were South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, and we led the pack. I remember we used to send technical consultants to advise the South Koreans.

By the lates nineties, however, we had fallen far behind this group and were competing with Thailand and Indonesia. Today, according to the latest World Investment Report, FDI into Malaysia is at about a twenty year low. We are entering the peer group of Cambodia, Myanmar and the Philippines as an investment destination. Thailand, despite a month long siege of the capital, attracted more FDI than we did last year. Indonesia and Vietnam far outperform us, not as a statistical blip but consistently. Soon we shall have difficulty keeping up with The Philippines. This, I believe, is called relegation. If we take into account FDI outflow, the picture is even more interesting. Last year we received US$1.38 billion (RM4.40 billion) in investments but US$ 8.04 billion flowed out. We are the only country in Southeast Asia which has suffered nett FDI outflow. I am not against outward investment. It can be a good thing for the country. But an imbalance on this scale indicates capital flight, not mere investment overseas.

Without a doubt, Malaysia is slipping. Billions have been looted from this

country, and billions more are being siphoned out as our entire political

structure crumbles. Yet we are gathered here in comfort, in a country that

still seems to 'work.' Most of the time. This is due less to good management than to the extraordinary wealth of this country. You were born into a country of immense resources both natural and cultural and social.  We have been wearing down this advantage with mismanagement and corruption.  With lies, tall tales and theft. We have a political class unwilling or unable to address the central issue of the day because they have grown fat and comfortable with a system built on lies and theft. It is easy to fall into the lull caused by the combination of whatever wealth has not been plundered and removed and political class that lives in a bubble of sycophancy.

I urge you not to fall into that complacency. It is time to wake up.

That waking up can begin here, right here, at this conference. Not tomorrow or the day after but today. So let me, as I have the honour of opening this conference, suggest the following:

Overcome the urge to have our hopes for the future endorsed by the Prime Minister. He will have retired, and I'll be long gone when your future

arrives. The shape of your future is being determined now.

Resist the temptation to say "in line with" when we do something. Your

projects, believe it or not, don't have to be in line with any government

campaign for them to be meaningful. You don't need to polish anyone's apple. Just get on with what you plan to do.

Do not put a lid on certain issues as "sensitive" because someone said they are. Or it is against the Social Contract. Or it is "politicisation". You

don't need to have your conversation delimited by the hyper-sensitive among us. Sensitivity is often a club people use to hit each other with. Reasoned  discussion of contentious issues builds understanding and trust. Test this  idea.

It's not "uber-liberal" to ask for an end to having politics, economic

policy, education policy and everything and the kitchen sink determined by race. It's called growing up. Go look up "liberal" in a dictionary.

Please resist the temptation to say Salam 1 Malaysia, or Salam Vision

2020 or Salam Malaysia Boleh, or anything like that. Not even when you are reading the news. It's embarrassing. I think it's OK to say plain old salam the way the Holy Prophet did, wishing peace unto all humanity. You say you want to "promote intellectual discourse." I take that to mean you want to have reasonable, thought-through and critical discussions, and slogans are the enemy of thought. Banish them.

Don't let the politicians you have invited here talk down to you.

Don't let them tell you how bright and "exuberant" you are, that you are the future of the nation, etc. If you close your eyes and flow with their

flattery you have safely joined the caravan, a caravan taking the nation

down a sink hole. If they tell you the future is in your hands kindly

request that they hand that future over first. Ask them how come the

youngest member of our cabinet is 45 and is full of discredited hacks? Our Merdeka cabinet had an average age below thirty. You're not the first

generation to be bright. Mine wasn't too stupid. But you could be the first

generation of students and young graduates in fifty years to push this

nation through a major transformation. And it is a transformation we need

desperately.

You will be told that much is expected of you, much has been given to you, and so forth. This is all true. Actually much has also been stolen from you.  Over the last twenty five years, much of the immense wealth generated by our  productive people and our vast resources has been looted. This was supposed  to have been your patrimony. The uncomplicated sense of belonging fully, wholeheartedly, unreservedly, to this country, in all it diversity, that has been taken from you.

Our sense of ourselves as Malaysians, a free and united people, has been

replaced by a tale of racial strife and resentment that continues to haunt

us. The thing is, this tale is false.

The most precious thing you have been deprived of has been your history.  Someone of my generation finds it hard to describe what must seem like a completely different country to you now. Malaysia was not born in strife but in unity. Our independence was achieved through a demonstration of unity by the people in supporting a multiracial government led by Tengku Abdul Rahman. That show of unity, demonstrated first through the municipal elections of 1952 and then through the Alliance's landslide victory in the elections of 1955, showed that the people of Malaya were united in wanting their freedom.

We surprised the British, who thought we could not do this.

Today we are no longer as united as we were then. We are also less free. I

don't think this is a coincidence. It takes free people to have the

psychological strength to overcome the confines of a racialised worldview.  It takes free people to overcome those politicians bent on hanging on to power gained by racialising every feature of our life including our football teams.

Hence while you are at this conference, let me argue, that as an absolute

minimum, we should call for the repeal of unjust and much abused Acts which are reversals of freedoms that we won at Merdeka.

I ask you in joining me in calling for the repeal of the ISA and the OSA.

These draconian laws have been used, more often than not, as political tools rather than instruments of national security. They create a climate of fear. These days there is a trend among right wing nationalist groups to identify the ISA with the defence of Malay rights. This is a self-inflicted insult on Malay rights. As if our Constitutional protections needed draconian laws to enforce them. I wish they were as zealous in defending our right not to be robbed by a corrupt ruling elite. We don't seem to be applying the law of the land there, let alone the ISA.

I ask you to join me in calling for the repeal of the Printing and

Publications Act, and above all, the Universities and Colleges Act. I don't

see how you can pursue your student activism with such freedom and support in the UK and Eire while forgetting that your brethren at home are deprived of their basic rights of association and expression by the UCA. The UCA has done immense harm in dumbing down our universities.

We must have freedom as guaranteed under our Constitution. Freedom to

assemble, associate, speak, write, move. This is basic. Even on matters of

race and even on religious matters we should be able to speak freely, and we shall educate each other.

It is time to realise the dream of Dato' Onn and the spirit of the Alliance,

of Tunku Abdul Rahman. That dream was one of unity and a single Malaysian people. They went as far as they could with it in their time. Instead of taking on the torch we have reversed course.  The next step for us as a country is to move beyond the infancy of race-based parties to a non-racial party system. Our race-based party system is the key political reason why we are a sick country, declining before our own eyes, with money fleeing and people telling their children not to come home after their studies.

So let us try to take 1 Malaysia seriously. Millions have been spent putting

up billboards and adding the term to every conceivable thing.  We even have cuti-cuti 1 Malaysia. Can't take a normal holiday anymore.

This is all fine. Now let us see if it means anything. Let us see the

Government of the day lead by example. 1 Malaysia is empty because it is

propagated by a Government that promotes the racially-based party system that is the chief cause of our inability to grow up in our race relations.  Our inability to grow up in our race relations is the chief reason why investors, and we ourselves, no longer have confidence in our economy. The reasons why we are behind Maldives in football, and behind the Philippines in FDI, are linked.

So let us take 1 Malaysia seriously, and convert Barisan Nasional into a

party open to all citizens. Let it be a multiracial party open to direct

membership. PR will be forced to do the same or be left behind the times.

Then we shall have the vehicles for a two party, non-race-based system.

If Umno, MIC or MCA are afraid of losing supporters, let them get their

members to join this new multiracial party. PR should do the same. Nobody need feel left out. Umno members can join en masse. The Hainanese Kopitiam Association can join whichever party they want, or both parties en masse if they like. We can maintain our cherished civil associations, however we choose to associate. But we drop all communalism when we compete for the  ballot. When our candidates stand for Elections, let them ever after stand only as Malaysians, better or worse.

The world is a dangerous place not because of people who do evil, but
because of good people who look on and do nothing about it.
- Albert Einstein -

Bayangkan Masa Depan Kita…

with thanks to :

Nurul Izzah Anwar

Ahli Parlimen Lembah Pantai dan Naib Presiden KEADILAN

Bayangkan Masa Depan Kita…

Posted on Tuesday, 25 September, 2012

Antara kelebihan manusia adalah menggunakan imaginasi untuk membayangkan masa depan yang lebih membahagiakan. Ada yang menggelarnya wawasan dan ada yang mengatakan ia angan-angan mat jenin.

Namun, bayangan ini penting untuk mereleasasikan impian bagi setiap manusia.

Bayangkan, desakan rakyat supaya prinsip ‘kuasa dari rakyat untuk rakyat’ -di mana semua cabang kenegaraan iaitu eksekutif, parlimen dan kehakiman benar-benar independen, dan mampu bertindak sebagai penimbang-tara dalam konsep pemisahan kuasa demokrasi yang dipantau media yang bebas. Peluang dan ruang untuk salahguna kuasa dan rasuah dapat jua disekat akhirnya.

Bayangkan sebuah negara yang berlandaskan demokrasi di mana rakyat dapat menentukan siapa yang berhak diberi amanah memerintah demi kepentingan semua. Jika prestasi dan hasil pentadbiran tidak memenuhi aspirasi rakyat, maka di dalam sebuah pilihan raya yang bersih, rakyat berkuasa menukar pemerintah secara aman.

Bayangkan sebuah dewan Parlimen yang benar-benar mewakili hak rakyat yang dapat memantau urusan pentadbiran kerajaan secara telus melalui jawatankuasa tetap, badan khazanah negara Petronas diletak dibawah kawalselia Parlimen serta semua perjanjian antarabangsa yang hanya diluluskan setelah mendapat persetujuan Dewan Rakyat agar peristiwa penyerahan tanah sempadan negara seperti Pulau Batu Putih atau Blok L dan M tidak berulang. Malah kepentingan serta keselamatan rakyat didahulukan dan dipelihara di dalam isu Lynas atau lombong emas di Bukit Koman, Raub.

Bayangkan sebuah badan kehakiman yang bebas di mana segala perundangan termasuk perlembagaan ditegakkan secara adil. Mungkinkah mereka yang memperkosa anak-anak gadis dibawah umur maupun jenayah rasuah yang besar lagi terang akan diadili dengan saksama?

Bayangkan jika semua berita yang diterima adalah dari media yang bebas. Memang benar apabila dikatakan, ‘maklumat itu adalah kuasa’. Berita mengenai kejayaan mahupun salah laku termasuk skandal rasuah dan konspirasi tidak terlepas daripada halaman berita yang mampu menjadi ‘pelindung demokrasi’.

Bayangkan perpaduan dan semangat muhibah diantara semua bangsa dan agama tanpa prasangka, tanpa propaganda pecah-belah yang sengaja diapi-apikan untuk tujuan politik sempit. Kepelbagaian budaya menjadi kekuatan dan kebanggaan kita.

Bayangkan angkatan tentera yang diberikan kelengkapan sepatutnya sepertimana yang telah dinasihatkan oleh DYMM Sultan Johor yang mendapati bukan sahaja kualiti kelengkapan kor Gerak Khas rendah yang boleh membahayakan nyawa anggota tentera kita dengan contoh kos kenderaan Rapid Intervention Vehicle (RIV) yang 4 kali ganda atau lebih RM500,000 daripada apa yang dibeli sendiri oleh Sultan Johor yang merangkap Kolonel-Kor tersebut. Bila diambil kira harga kapal selam, kereta perisai, helikopter, kapal perang, pesawat jet pejuang dan aset pertahanan lain yang terlalu mahal, timbul kesedaran: kalau negara sudah dibangkrapkan siapa yang hendak menyerang kita?

Bayangkan kadar jenayah dikawal apabila pasukan polis digunakan secara berkesan memerangi penjenayah dan bukan mengintip rakyat sendiri lebih dari yang patut. Polis menjadi teman sejati dan pelindung harta dan nyawa rakyat tanpa memihak kepada elit sahaja.

Bayangkan penjawat awam yang berdedikasi tanpa dibelenggu pemerintah untuk menjayakan agenda rakyat dan bukan agenda golongan atasan. Kejayaan pentadbiran awam akan menentukan keadilan di dalam pemberian skim gaji dan kemudahan setimpal yang memelihara maruah dan harga diri secara berterusan.

Bayangkan harga minyak turun, harga kereta turun, harga rumah mampu, harga elektrik turun, pendidikan percuma akibat penstrukturan semula dasar ekonomi termasuk menambah baik sistem percukaian, menghalang pemusatan harta dan kuasa ekonomi ke tangan beberapa individu terpilih. Inilah yang dikatakan harta negara adalah harta rakyat.

Bayangkan rakyat akhirnya akan mengetahui kebenaran bagaimana ekonomi negara kita dimiskinkan dengan siasatan menyeluruh siapa dan bagaimana kekayaan negara dijarah. Senarai nama-nama mereka yang kaya-raya hasil daripada rasuah, tirisan ekonomi, salah guna kuasa dan pembaziran yang disengajakan akan terpahat pada ‘Tugu Rasuah’ sebagai pengajaran generasi akan datang.

Bayangkan budaya politik yang sihat dan murni dimana perdebatan mengenai dasar hala-tuju dan pendekatan pentadbiran menjadi utama dan bukannya politik dendam, politik ketakutan, politik kebencian, politik ganas dengan berbagai propaganda mitos ‘Melayu akan hilang kuasa’ serta konspirasi fitnah lucah politik dijadikan teras perjuangan mempertahankan kedudukan dan pegangan kuasa.

Bayangkan bangsa Melayu menjadi bangsa contoh bagaimana sebuah negara Islam demokrasi berparlimen ditegakkan oleh sebuah bangsa yang yakin pada jatidiri, berpegang kepada prinsip-prinsip mulia dan mencerminkan keimanan sejagat tanpa perlu berbahasa kasar, merendahkan kaum lain, mencaci lucah, memfitnah dan merasa takut pada manusia berkuasa lagi berpangkat. Ini adalah bangsa beriman lagi budiman menjadi pelindung hak dan prinsip demokrasi untuk semua.

Bayangkan semua ini mampu menjadi realiti tidak lama lagi kerana, rakyat ada kuasa membuat pilihan di peti undi atau adakah semua tadi akan hanya tinggal angan-angan kerana kuasa memilih rakyat dirampas melalui projek IC, pengundi hantu dan sebagainya?

Bayangkan apa yang mampu kita ubah?

(Pertama kali disiarkan di Sinar Harian pada 25hb September 2012)