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Thaksin allies set for landmark Thai election win

(AFP)

3 July 2011, 4:36 PM

Allies of Thailand’s fugitive ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra looked set to win pivotal elections, in a remarkable comeback after years of turmoil sparked by his ouster in a military coup.

The vote was the first major electoral test for the elite-backed government since mass demonstrations by Thaksin’s ‘Red Shirt’ supporters last year paralysed Bangkok and unleashed the worst political violence in decades.

Amid fears that an opposition victory could unleash more deadly protests or another coup, Thaksin called on all sides to respect the outcome of the ballot in which final results were expected to be announced within hours.

‘All parties must respect the people’s decision otherwise our country cannot achieve peace,’ the former billionaire telecoms tycoon told Thai television by telephone from his base in Dubai.

‘I think people want to see reconciliation. They want to move forward,’ he said. ‘We will not seek revenge.’

Exit polls released soon after voting ended showed Thaksin’s Puea Thai Party headed for a decisive majority. Suan Dusit University estimated it had won 313 seats out of 500, against 152 for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrats.

But partial unofficial results from the Election Commission later suggested the final margin might not be so wide, with Puea Thai on about 254 seats and the Democrats with 164, after 67 percent of the votes were counted.

If the opposition win is confirmed, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who he tapped to become the opposition’s candidate for premier, is set to become Thailand’s first female prime minister.

‘Thaksin has called to congratulate me and said there was a tough job ahead,’ a smiling Yingluck told jubilant supports at the Puea Thai Party’s headquarters in the Thai capital.

‘Thank you to the people who came out to vote,’said the 44-year-old telegenic businesswoman, a political novice who Thaksin has described as his ‘clone’.

Toppled by the military in 2006 and now living in self-imposed exile to avoid a jail term for corruption, Thaksin nevertheless dominated the election in Thailand, where he remains a hugely divisive figure.

He is adored by rural voters for his populist policies while in power such as cheap healthcare and microcredit schemes, but hated by the ruling elite who see him as corrupt, authoritarian and a threat to the revered monarchy.

The election is seen as a major test of the kingdom’s ability to emerge from its long political crisis, which has seen years of street protests by Thaksin’s ‘Red Shirt’ supporters and the rival ‘Yellow Shirt’ royalists.

More than 170,000 police were deployed to secure the vote, but it appeared to proceed peacefully. Long queues were seen at polling stations.

Political observers had said that a close result could fuel a fresh round of street protests and possibly another military takeover, but a clear win by the opposition will make it harder for the generals to justify seizing power.

The Puea Thai party has proposed an amnesty for convicted politicians — a move apparently aimed at bringing Thaksin home, where he faces terrorism charges in connection with the April-May 2010 protests.

More than 90 people, mostly civilians, died in a series of street clashes between mostly unarmed red-clad protesters loyal to Thaksin and government soldiers firing live ammunition in the streets of the capital.

Many doubt the Bangkok-based establishment in government, military and palace circles would allow the one-time owner of Manchester City football club to come back as a free man.

If Thaksin tries to return the army may ‘strike back’, said Thai academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun, of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

‘If he sets foot in Thailand the military could accuse him of coming back and trying to create disunity among Thais.’

Asked about his plans, Thaksin said Sunday he hoped to see his daughter marry in Thailand in December.

‘I don’t have to return home soon. I can stay here, but I just really want to attend my daughter’s wedding. I don’t want to cause trouble by returning home.’

The military is a constant wildcard in a nation that has seen almost as many coups as elections. The judiciary also has a record of intervening in politics.

Thaksin or his allies have won the most seats in the past four elections, but the courts reversed the results of the last two polls.

British-born Abhisit took office in a 2008 parliamentary vote after a court ruling threw out the previous administration, and he was accused by his foes of being an unelected puppet of the military and the establishment.

His Democrat Party, with traditional support in Bangkok and the south, has not won a general election in nearly two decades. Even so there was a sense of disbelief at its headquarters at the results of the exit polls.

‘I don’t believe it,’ deputy premier Suthep Thaugsuban told AFP. ‘If people want our country to move in that direction I have to surrender.’