Food for though : with thanks to Kem.
In our culture, fighting incumbent has a 70:30 chance & in GE12 & 13 with a popular former DPM this has tilt the balance to 50:50 chance. But now with the former PM & DPM joing forces the balance against the incumbent is 40:60 inspite of whatever 'dirt' smeared to the challengers.
Theoritical human behavior analysis.
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